Your Way Too Early Election Night Guide
Like you, I’m waking up and checking the polls every day. I'm starting to see them in my sleep. We’re all worried a stressful election night could turn into a week...or month...or who knows.
Are we in for another 2020 gut punch?
1) Biden’s most likely path may not be decided quickly... You’ve probably read that Biden can seal the deal by winning Pennsylvania, assuming the big leads in Wisconsin and Michigan hold. The problem is PA will not count votes until the day of the election, meaning there’s a high chance it will remain too close to call on the night of the election.
2) ...and Biden’s silver bullet could be a long shot. A win in Florida would make almost every other swing state result irrelevant, which is why President Obama has spent his entire week there. But demographics in Florida - lots of high propensity older voters - make it very winnable for Trump. If there’s any systemic bias in the polls or turnout, FL could be red or stay too close to call.
3) An unexpected kingmaker? Although currently tipped as unlikely to be deciding states, Texas (yes, Texas!), Arizona, and North Carolina all start counting votes before election day. That means they may be the first races to be called from among the swing states, and if any surprise blue, they could be the deciding vote.
Arizona and North Carolina also have extremely close Senate races where Democrats currently lead the polls. Based on early voting, all three are likely to turn out 50% more votes than 2016, meaning blowout numbers. If Biden can win these two on election night, we may not see the dragged-out-contested-election scenario everyone fears. They're likely to be called in the wee hours - so keep the coffee warm.
Useful sources until then:
Early vote counts: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
Real clear politics latest polls: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/